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Future predictions for the RVP - with no EV credit, what will happen?

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#22 ·
Im2bz2p345 said:
Hi all,

Given the tax incentive for Toyota going away with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the overall economic climate, I'm curious to hear what folks predict will happen to Toyota RAV4 Prime. I feel this could be a good discussion topic.

My 3 questions are:

1) Will Toyota adjust their pricing for 2023 model year by discounting from the current MSRP? Or do you think the keep the MSRP as-is or increase it? If you pick increase, how much do you feel it will go up by?

2) Will there inventory on dealer lots in 2024? The reason that I am asking about 2024 and not 2023 is because it doesn't seem like the chip supply chain issues will be resolved within a year.

3) In 2024, will the R4P continue to sell at MSRP? Or will Toyota need to provide incentives/dealerships need to discount the vehicle? Currently we're seeing MSRP that includes "DELIVERY, PROCESSING & HANDLING FEE" to the dealer lot of: $41.5K (base SE) to just over $50K (fully loaded XSE).

Thanks for responding in advance! I'll post my own predictions in a bit.

~ Im2bz2p345 :)
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1) I predict that pricing for R4P will go up because production will be limited.
2) There will be a much smaller inventory on dealer lots in 2024 because of limited production and dealers realizing that the old days of carrying a 60-90 day supply of vehicles are over. A 30-45 day supply will work just fine (if they haven't already figured that out).

More predictions:

All BEVs will need batteries with an increasing percentage of materials coming from either North America or countries that have a free trade agreement with the United States. The percentages of raw materials in batteries increases to 80% by 2027, which will put pressure on mining for rare earth minerals in areas of North America that are environmentally sensitive.

Right now, 70% of currently manufactured BEVs are not eligible for the time-of-sale tax credit. Since 3 out of 4 EV buyers want a Tesla, the fact that most Teslas cost more than the upper limit allowed by the IRA, there won't be as big a demand for EVs as you might expect.

Unless Toyota shifts manufacturing to North America, it won't matter where the batteries are made and where the materials come from.

If the recent experience of the Ford Lighting price increases immediately after the IRA was passed offers any guidance, the $7500 credit will be taken by the manufacturer as profit, which is essentially what Ford did a few weeks ago. Don't take my word for it. Do your own internet search.
 
#23 ·
14v6 said:
From what I read the name of the game with the Prime is to use it as an EV and have the gas engine as a backup. All the hype about it being the second fastest Toyota isn't the real mission. If you have multiple cars, and mostly do short trips my thinking is you might as well plug in a pure EV, not a plug in Hybrid. A regular hybrid is probably a nice place to hang out until the dust settles on all this EV and plug in stuff. I fill up a regular hybrid once or twice a month, it seems a lot more convenient that tripping over cords and leaving a filler door open only to get broken.

In the past it was always an ICE was cheaper than a hybrid or EV when factoring in purchase price and this legislation does nothing to change that. Toyota's got it all figured out though as the credits were going to expire anyway so they can just shift production around as they see fit. One thing I learned was that margins are tighter on EVs, I thought with fewer parts and labor they would be way cheaper but apparently that's not the case.
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(1) sure it isn't the real mission but once someone experience it, trust me, the extra power makes the Prime well worth it. I'm certain that many people wouldn't care for the Prime if it had the same power as the Hybrid, even with the tax credit. (2) Disagree that ICE was cheaper than a hybrid. I don't think you've considered cost of ownership = How much you pay for it, minus how much it cost to travel X miles per year time X years, minus the resale value after that time period. Compare a ICE and a Hybrid and I'm pretty sure most hybrids will be cheaper to own vs their gas counterparts.

mww33458 said:
Ford just hiked the price of their electric F-150 by $8,500 which more than offsets the IRA subsidy 😂.
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Wow, sad...but def not suprises though as we've seen those cheap tricks before

sinbad said:
Don't forget the R4 Prime is a global car. The US tax credit only affects one part of their market. Toyota certainly would not reduce the price much more below the world market pricing. With the just ended Fed and state tax credits factored in, it was a bargain at mid $30's, a red SE with weather package and a thousand dollars of port options, plus your state fees. Right now, what other small wagon has AWD, 2500 lbs towing, low gas and fuel costs, with likely good reliability? I saw the Jeep mentioned as an alternative, but I think it hardly compares for road travel. Noisy, rougher ride, and burns much more fuel. If there was no R4Prime, I'd buy another Forester, alas no turbo anymore, but Much Better AWD, more drivers legroom, useable roof rails, bigger moonroof, and better rearward visibility. Fuel however would be more costly, probably almost double. Instead of a second R4Prime, we would have kept the Camry another year and would have bought a Nissan, Kia, or Hyundai BEV. Sorry the Subaru-Toyota BEV black fenders are a no go. Kinda like the Mustang EV, but the last two Fords poor reliability we had made me swear off them. Hardly any better than Fiat and all their nameplates.
I see the R4Prime continuing to be in demand, just not the super bargain it was for most US buyers.
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Agree! If USA buyers won't pay full MRSP for the Prime, Toyota could probably shift output to another country that have buyers that would. I agree with you that the Prime is the vehicle that does it all. Decent height, decent towing and utility, roomy trunk, good mpg on pure gas, 42miles of electric in town is plenty for many folks for daily drives, damm nice acceleration, Toyota build and reliability. With the tax credit, it was the unicorn of vehicles. Without the credit, I still see it selling fine at mrsp at the current low precentage of Rav4's produced out there.
 
#24 ·
I think more of "the bigger picture." Mostly of "the future of battery electric vehicles." Yes, right now, most people can drive up to a charging station most of the time and plug right in. But in "popular destinations," people are finding that they will have to wait in line before they can get to a charging stall -- let's call it by its proper name, a "dispenser." How long will you sit in line, waiting for a dozen cars ahead of you in line to get to one of the four-or-so dispensers, before you'll get your chance to sit there for half an hour to an hour?

I frankly don't expect the charging infrastructure to keep up with battery electric vehicle sales. And when we get to the point where battery electric vehicles become "mainstream" -- think in terms of how we have around 300 million vehicles at any time in the US, and thus if 10% of those are battery electric vehicles, that means 30 million vehicles trying to charge at public chargers -- I think people will start getting exasperated with the proverbial "I could have DRIVEN HOME BY NOW, but I'll still have to wait for hours to get to a dispenser, so I can get home!"

Bear in mind that most battery electric vehicles don't have the "300 miles of range" you might have heard about, but it's closer to around 250 miles of range. At DC fast chargers, these vehicles have "charging curves" that slow them down to a crawl when they get above 70% or 80% of a charge. So, people might be going to chargers with 20% remaining, and charging up to 70% remaining. That's HALF of their battery capacity -- and thus, they're sitting there for half an hour or so (perhaps after waiting for hours to get there) -- which adds up to 125 miles of range added, each time they charge up.

At some point in time, I expect "it will hit the fan."

Meanwhile, with a competent plug-in hybrid, you'll likely have 600 miles of range on the open highways, you'll be able to drive "100% electric" for most of your driving, and whenever you are indeed out on the open road, you can add perhaps around 500 miles of range in a few minutes, and get home on time. And then there's the difference between an enormous battery that requires DC fast charging to "fill up" within half an hour to an hour, versus a much smaller battery in a plug-in hybrid, which anyone can "fill up" overnight with a simple, common extension cord. Yes, Level 2 charging will fill up a battery electric vehicle overnight, but that's a near impossibility for a significant portion of our population, which doesn't have access to a "garage."

Whatever Toyota does, getting a competent plug-in hybrid might be the best bet at this point. Yes, I am concerned about our environment, but I'm far more concerned with how battery electric vehicle charging will "scale up" (or not) in the near future. From what I've seen lately, I would recommend a plug-in hybrid over a battery electric vehicle, any day. Unless you'd rather own two different vehicles, one for city use, and one for road trips.
 
#25 ·
thoots said:
I think more of "the bigger picture." Mostly of "the future of battery electric vehicles." Yes, right now, most people can drive up to a charging station most of the time and plug right in. But in "popular destinations," people are finding that they will have to wait in line before they can get to a charging stall -- let's call it by its proper name, a "dispenser." How long will you sit in line, waiting for a dozen cars ahead of you in line to get to one of the four-or-so dispensers, before you'll get your chance to sit there for half an hour to an hour?
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Completely agree on all points sir! Until pure electric cars can (1) go near 300 real world miles and readily have access to a "dispenser" anytime they need it on the road, and (2) be fully charge within the time span of a meal, I don't see electric cars going mainstream either. I agree a family could probably do a electric car + a hybrid or PHEV for the road until that's ready. Not to mention be reasonably affordable while still having decent performance would be nice. i.e. if the Model Y was $50K and available for purchase, I might have gone that route vs the R4P cus we already have a Sienna. The Y being way more than that plus the Prime XSE+PP for low 40's after tax credit was too hard to pass up though. Again, for me when I purchased my Prime.
 
#26 ·
8AA said:
It's an interesting question. When I was in the market for a new car to replace my Prius, I looked at the RAV4 Hybrid because I was sold on the idea of a hybrid vehicle. I then found out about the Prime, but didn't know if I wanted to spend the additional money to have the option of driving some in EV mode. However, with the tax credit that was in place, the cost difference was pretty small and it seemed like a good way to get my feet wet and see what it was like to own an EV. Now that I've had it for awhile, I realize how perfect a plug-in hybrid is for me. Toyota's estimate of 42 miles proved to be conservative and I'm getting an EV range of 52-55 miles. This is enough for me to only have to recharge every 2-3 days and use very little gas. For the occasional longer trip, I just use the HV mode. I've also taken some road trips and while it was nice to find hotels with chargers, it wasn't that important, I just drove it like a regular hybrid. When I ultimately need to replace the car, I will definitely consider getting another plug-in hybrid. If the RAV4 is too expensive, I'll look at the other makes and models.

For those in the US, Toyota might start building more of their cars here. My understanding is that the batteries also have to be produced in the US to qualify for the new tax credit, and the materials have to come from the US or other countries that we have a fair trade agreement. It's also possible that with lobbying, the tax credit will be modified. It sounds like the big three want at least a temporary period while they shift their manufacturing back to the US. What about countries that don't have a tax credit? It sounds like it isn't hurting the sales of the RAV4 Prime there.
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Toyota is already building a battery plant in Greensboro, NC. There will be a year or two gap where no Toyotas qualify and then they will be back on the IRS eligible list . It is not a big stretch as RAV4 hybrids are already built in N.A.
 
#27 · (Edited)
thoots said:
I think more of "the bigger picture." Mostly of "the future of battery electric vehicles." Yes, right now, most people can drive up to a charging station most of the time and plug right in. But in "popular destinations," people are finding that they will have to wait in line before they can get to a charging stall -- let's call it by its proper name, a "dispenser." How long will you sit in line, waiting for a dozen cars ahead of you in line to get to one of the four-or-so dispensers, before you'll get your chance to sit there for half an hour to an hour?

I frankly don't expect the charging infrastructure to keep up with battery electric vehicle sales. And when we get to the point where battery electric vehicles become "mainstream" -- think in terms of how we have around 300 million vehicles at any time in the US, and thus if 10% of those are battery electric vehicles, that means 30 million vehicles trying to charge at public chargers -- I think people will start getting exasperated with the proverbial "I could have DRIVEN HOME BY NOW, but I'll still have to wait for hours to get to a dispenser, so I can get home!"

Bear in mind that most battery electric vehicles don't have the "300 miles of range" you might have heard about, but it's closer to around 250 miles of range. At DC fast chargers, these vehicles have "charging curves" that slow them down to a crawl when they get above 70% or 80% of a charge. So, people might be going to chargers with 20% remaining, and charging up to 70% remaining. That's HALF of their battery capacity -- and thus, they're sitting there for half an hour or so (perhaps after waiting for hours to get there) -- which adds up to 125 miles of range added, each time they charge up.

At some point in time, I expect "it will hit the fan."

Meanwhile, with a competent plug-in hybrid, you'll likely have 600 miles of range on the open highways, you'll be able to drive "100% electric" for most of your driving, and whenever you are indeed out on the open road, you can add perhaps around 500 miles of range in a few minutes, and get home on time. And then there's the difference between an enormous battery that requires DC fast charging to "fill up" within half an hour to an hour, versus a much smaller battery in a plug-in hybrid, which anyone can "fill up" overnight with a simple, common extension cord. Yes, Level 2 charging will fill up a battery electric vehicle overnight, but that's a near impossibility for a significant portion of our population, which doesn't have access to a "garage."

Whatever Toyota does, getting a competent plug-in hybrid might be the best bet at this point. Yes, I am concerned about our environment, but I'm far more concerned with how battery electric vehicle charging will "scale up" (or not) in the near future. From what I've seen lately, I would recommend a plug-in hybrid over a battery electric vehicle, any day. Unless you'd rather own two different vehicles, one for city use, and one for road trips.
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I can't argue with you about the value of a "competent" PHEV like the RAV4 Prime (most PHEVs are not competent, yet, because I define a "competent" PHEV as one that can consistently go 35-40 miles in all-electric driving on one charge in local driving). But you really miss a big point about BEVs -- namely that most BEV buyers (so far, anyway) rarely if ever do big road trips in them. Most BEV owners either keep a second (or third) vehicle that's an ICEV or PHEV for longer road trips, or else they fly to destinations and rent a car there. So the point is that public chargers will not need to instantly be "everywhere" like gas stations are "everywhere" -- because people aren't going to be buying BEVs with their eyes shut. And yet, BEVs continue to sell well and in an increasing manner, year by year, because they are superb cars for local driving/commuting -- much better than ICEVs are, provided that you can plug in at home every night and you only drive within the range of your full charge. If every BEV owner was constantly doing road trips, you'd see much worse situations at public-charging stations. Instead, what is happening and will continue to happen is that people will buy BEVs in increasing numbers each year, knowing the issues with taking long road trips -- while at the same time, automakers and charging/electric companies and governments will be steadily building out a larger and more dependable public-charging infrastructure. We've been here before, even if "we" don't remember: when we moved from horse-and-buggy days to gasoline-powered cars a century ago, the gas-station infrastructure had to be built out then, also, and it didn't happen overnight. But it happened then and will happen again now. Our kids and their kids will see a world with many fewer ICEVs on the roads and many fewer stations selling gasoline/petrol.

As for the topic of this thread: I predict that the RAV4 Prime will continue to sell well, and as quickly as Toyota can build them. This is the best PHEV on the market right now, at least in North America, for all-around abilities. And it's a great transition vehicle from the 20th-century ICEV era to the 21st-century BEV era. With BEV technology and charging issues needing big improvements still, I've been predicting for years that the 2020s will be the decade of the PHEV, not the decade of the BEV. BEVs will become king in the 2030s.
In terms of battery materials, Toyota can make about four RAV4-Prime-like PHEVs for every BEV that it can make, and with the scarcity of battery metals (and the problems of getting them from China and Russia and other countries that we shouldn't be supporting), Toyota would be well-advised to build the RAV4 Prime in North America (even if in Mexico, where labor costs are cheaper) and to work hard to get battery metals from the free-trade countries associated with the USA. If Toyota can thus satisfy the new regulations for getting the US tax credit, they may sell many more RAV4 Primes -- if that's indeed what Toyota wants to do (and who knows if that's what they want or not).

It's sad to see that Toyota did such a bad job with it's "first" BEV -- the bZ4X -- which has its wheels literally falling off and which lacks such key things as a glove box. I suppose that Toyota tried with the bZ4X, but I'd hope for more-practical and more-serious BEV offerings in the future from Toyota. I still think that Toyota should make a PHEV Venza with the range of the RAV4 Prime before they go all-out on BEVs.
 
#28 ·
cometguy said:
"provided that you can plug in at home every night."
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"That's a big if." I would like to invite you to go find the newest apartment building complex in your area, and check it out for a couple of minutes. Most likely, it will have three or more stories, and it'll have a simple, uncovered parking lot in front of the apartments. By all means, please explain to me how someone living on the third floor of such a building is going to "plug in at home every night" with a Level 2 charger, in such a situation. In my area, home ownership is a dream beyond most incomes, and apartment life is growing far more than home ownership is. And I just point this out in relation to how auto manufacturers have announced that they will stop building ICE vehicles "by 2030" or some such date, and even a number of states here in the US are working to prevent the sale of ICE vehicles by some date or another. Where, oh where, are millions of apartment dwellers going to charge up their battery electric vehicles, when no ICE vehicles are available?

I just see a big difference between "now" and "when battery electric vehicles become mainstream." And with the expectation that battery electric vehicle ownership will vastly outstrip public charging infrastructure, I think the future looks bleak for the battery electric vehicle. Or any other vehicle that will take half an hour to an hour to "fill up with energy." Yes, I expect battery electric vehicles might get to a point where "quick and convenient" charging is possible some day, but between then and now, millions of battery electric vehicles will be sold that will still be sitting around in glorified parking lots, waiting for their turn to charge up.
 
#29 ·
thoots said:
"That's a big if." I would like to invite you to go find the newest apartment building complex in your area, and check it out for a couple of minutes. Most likely, it will have three or more stories, and it'll have a simple, uncovered parking lot in front of the apartments. By all means, please explain to me how someone living on the third floor of such a building is going to "plug in at home every night" with a Level 2 charger, in such a situation. In my area, home ownership is a dream beyond most incomes, and apartment life is growing far more than home ownership is. And I just point this out in relation to how auto manufacturers have announced that they will stop building ICE vehicles "by 2030" or some such date, and even a number of states here in the US are working to prevent the sale of ICE vehicles by some date or another. Where, oh where, are millions of apartment dwellers going to charge up their battery electric vehicles, when no ICE vehicles are available?

I just see a big difference between "now" and "when battery electric vehicles become mainstream." And with the expectation that battery electric vehicle ownership will vastly outstrip public charging infrastructure, I think the future looks bleak for the battery electric vehicle. Or any other vehicle that will take half an hour to an hour to "fill up with energy." Yes, I expect battery electric vehicles might get to a point where "quick and convenient" charging is possible some day, but between then and now, millions of battery electric vehicles will be sold that will still be sitting around in glorified parking lots, waiting for their turn to charge up.
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There are many issues to overcome before BEVs can be realistically be the majority of vehicles in service. But I think it will work itself out, eventually. Regarding apartments, I agree with your commentary, except to note that in the northern US it is common, even ubiquitous, to see apartment parking spaces with a power outlet for each space to accommodate the engine block heaters. A close friend who lived in the frozen north assures me that without a block heater “you ain’t going nowhere” in wintertime northern Wisconsin, so laying electric lines to service parking is already commonplace there. With need, I can see it happening to provide charging ports, too. It it’s a ways off.
 
#30 ·
my apologies just wanted to jump in on the BEV issue . these things are a long way from becoming mainstream and lack of planning will hinder this for a good long time . look we need about a 5 min fill up or nearly full would be fine and that would require a 1600v architecture for both vehicle and infrastructure .... well pretty sure none exist .

ok say ten min is fine that leaves you with something like the hummer @ a very high price tag . sure 800v great but no where to charge it at top speed and to my knowledge none coming .

to get this right all the infrastructure coming needs to be upgraded and all existing needs to be replaced . cant we just have that capability as an option on the infrastructure and just build it once then let the vehicle manufacturers catch up .

love to have a BEV but i aint waiting half an hour to an hour for a fill up let alone waiting in a lineup .

JMO
 
#31 · (Edited)
I am late to the discussion...

As northern Virginia resident, I bought the 2020 RAV4HV LE for ~$28k because we have high annual car taxes based on car bluebook values. So the Federal tax credit for RAV4P does not cover the excess costs here. And sheesh, my used 2020 was valued over $30k this year...would have expected closer to $20k value tax basis.

I am a hybrid fan myself, but national policy has been to favor full BEV's. The more tons of lithium in your car the better, is what we USA want to subsidize. That is starting to make less sense...
 
#32 ·
As a current owner of a 2013 Nissan Leaf. We're now down to 60 mile range. Given the current state of charging infrastructure in both Canada and US. BEV is not the answer, PHEV is where I am headed. The wife and I are looking a consolidating my 2014 ML 350 Blue and her 2013 Nissan Leaf into RAV4 Prime. She needs the Plug-in aspect to drive 1-2 miles to/from the house. While the Gasoline/Hybrid aspect helps deals with not wanting/needing to charge at public sites. Since I am working from the house for the next 5-7 years, we don't see a need to keep 2 vehicles. I only drive the Mercedes once a week just to keep it in running condition.
 
#34 ·
Calson said:
Dealers will not be able to add $5,000 to the MSRP for their plug-in hybrids as they now are doing. We paid $55,000 for our 2022 Rav4 Prime XSE vehicle in May and it was not fully loaded.
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Have you looked at cars.com what places are asking for USED SE and XSE vehicles? I am guessing you waited a fair bit to get yours from a dealer. You could still turn a profit re-selling it. But what would you drive? That is the phenomena that is pushing these prices. People wreck a car, or get a bonus, or shell out an engine, or add a baby, and they decide they will pay, hell or high water.......

As long as that stuff is going on, then it tells me people are desperate for a new, energy efficient vehicle. Probably some of it is the "wow effect" that Tesla had for a while, although, honestly, Toyota's don't get much wow....

I though I'd get more comments about my Prime in KC, where they are rare as heck. Zero comments, zero looks generally. Now, when I took it to drive electric event, sponsored by the local utility, there, it got LOTS of attention. Out on the street, it just looks like another RAV4.
 
#35 ·
If gasoline drops from its current price down to $2-3 a gallon the demand for PHEV vehicles will also drop. The high demand for the RAV 4 Prime is equal to the high price of fuel in my opinion. Gas at $2 a gallon most people will buy a gas guzzler again, just like last time.

People have short memories as I went through all the gasoline crisis since the 1970s and was a car owner at the time, I never forgot the first one and always owned fuel efficient vehicles after the first gas crisis, that vehicle being a 1977 VW Rabbit Diesel, 50 mpg, diesel fuel readily available at truck stops and a lot cheaper than gasoline, no 1/2 mile gas lines for me as I was living in Connecticut at the time.
 
#38 · (Edited)
alster said:
If gasoline drops from its current price down to $2-3 a gallon the demand for PHEV vehicles will also drop. The high demand for the RAV 4 Prime is equal to the high price of fuel in my opinion. Gas at $2 a gallon most people will buy a gas guzzler again, just like last time.
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I disagree. The RAV4 Prime was a hot seller when it came out in 2020 with gas prices at their lowest in decades. Gas will not get down to $2/gallon again unless there's another severe pandemic (or war) that shuts down everything as happened in 2020. Remember that oil fell to less than $0/barrel for a time in the (northern-hemisphere) spring of 2020. What has happened also since 2020 (and did not happen in the 1970s, referring to your "history lesson") is that the move toward EVs continued to increase, and Tesla continued on a tear toward becoming one of the most valuable automobile manufacturers in the world, finally turning a good profit after a decade of struggles in starting up.

Continuing that recent history is the passage of the infrastructure act last year in Congress (which is now starting to see money going to states to build out an improved public-charging infrastructure), the signing into law this month of the act that will encourage more movement toward renewable energy sources and less use of fossil fuels in transportation, and the CARB decision today to mandate that no new ICEVs will be sellable in California starting in 2035 (a regulation that will likely be followed in most or all of the CARB states). What this means is that the electric revolution in the automotive industry is now irreversible, seeing that many if not most big automakers are pledging to be mostly making electric vehicles a decade from now.

The price of gasoline will not stop, or even slow down, the move away from fossil fuels and toward electric vehicles in the coming decade. The governor of Texas seems to think that Texas will still be a "haven" for new ICEV sales in 2035 (as he makes snide remarks about California's moving away from ICEVs and the fossil fuels that are such a huge extraction/refining business in TX), but Texas will not be able to sell new ICEVs in 2035 if they are no longer made. So, to me, the interesting question is not how much gas will fluctuate up and down in the next few years, but rather how oil companies are going to operate in this new landscape; many large oil companies, for example, are already getting into renewable-energy projects to complement/supplement their oil/gas business. Many refineries shut down during the pandemic and will not ever open again; some of the more costly oil-extracting businesses shut down during the pandemic and may never start up again. So there are two possibilities a decade from now: either automobile gasoline becomes super-expensive because there's much less demand (it always costs more to produce something in smaller quantities) or it become super-inexpensive because there's a glut of oil and much lower demand; I suspect that these two forces will even out and gasoline will remain generally $4-$5/gallon in the US over the next decade, on average -- though inflation, wars, and other issues certainly will weigh in, in addition to refining problems).

As for the RAV4 Prime and its future sales: used Primes will probably sell well in the coming decade (for vehicles in good condition). I expect their reliability to be excellent -- on a par with ICE-only RAV4s and Highlanders, and other Toyotas generally. If you can charge at home, gas prices don't matter (high or low) for many of us, because we just want to drive locally in all-electric and stay away from gas stations for as long as possible in between fill-ups. I think that the cheapest SE RAV4 Primes (new) will continue to sell well without the federal tax credit, but higher-end XSE Primes may sell many fewer vehicles -- just because Toyota is not a luxury-car company, and spending $50k for a Toyota is not something most people are willing to do (regardless of dependability or reliability reputation). As one nears $50k, you're getting into Lexus and BMW and Audi and Merc and Volvo (and even Porsche) territory.

So, if you can afford $40k-$50k for a car, gas prices are probably not going to be a (realistic) huge factor anyway, and the competition will be more keen for any Toyota vs. cars with much-better interiors and comfort. Almost all "mainstream" luxury-car brands start around $35k-$40k for their cheapest models (and the BMWs and Audis and Mercs that you see most often on the street cost around $40k-$50k); new Porsches start at $55k. The RAV4 has been the best-selling SUV in America for years now, and that -- plus the fact that it's well made, has fabulous range, and has great practicality and capability -- will ensure a high interest for the RAV4 Prime for years to come. It sounds to me like the ownership experience with RAV4 Primes is generally very high and very positive. I think that the irreversible and accelerating move toward BEVs will ensure that the RAV4 Prime will be in high demand for the next decade for those who do road trips and can't be troubled with the current bad state of public-charging infrastructure. If you can charge at home, it's hard to beat the RAV4 Prime for value and capability among SUVs in America. But Toyota needs to prepare to build the RAV4 Prime in North America and stop getting battery metals from China if they want to compete at the price point in America to keep selling lots of them in the next decade. Clearly, Toyota is much better at building PHEVs than building BEVs right now, with the wheels literally coming off of the bZ4X (designed poorly as it is without a rear wiper and glove box, and with a crazy steering wheel situation).
 
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