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Assuming the national average cost of electricity at .12 cents per kWh it will cost $2.17 to fully charge the 18.1 kWh battery to travel 42 miles.

Does anyone see a problem with these numbers?

My current 2019 Rav 4 hybrid can travel 42-44 miles on one gallon of gasoline which cost me just over $2 per gallon 🤔

I understand gas fluctuates more than electricity but even if gasoline goes to $4.17 a gallon it will take 56,000 miles before I would recoup the price difference I paid for my Rav 4 hybrid 2019 XLE ($27,900) and the Prime SE after the tax rebate ($38,100-$7,500=$30,600) assuming you can purchase the Prime for msrp.
 

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Yes, it won't save money for mostly all, unless you have solar panels and planning to drive ton of EV miles, but that's probably 0.1% of who buys it and still might take years to recover the price difference, so the only reason to get it is mainly for a bit more fun factor.
 

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I'm at a loss to understand why people are compelled to assume that "cost savings" is ever a reason to consider a HV purchase. It may or may not be, but its certainly not at the top of the list. Its a false argument in any case, often brought forward by hybrid haters.
 

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but its certainly not at the top of the list.
For most buyers who buy a "HV" it's the top of the list item aka "save at fuel pump", you are a minority if you bought "HV" without having "cost savings" in the top of the list. Curious what were your top list items?
 
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100% depends on your local gas and electric rates, and how much you can utilize electric. I pay 6 cents per kilowatt where I live (phoenix, AZ), and gas is slightly over 2$ a gallon, plus I drive to work only 1 week a month now. At that rate, it would take me 8 years to pay back the extra 3K I believe.

However, my "realistic case" based off of my new likely post-pandemic schedule, which would be work in the office 3 days a week, and assumed gas goes back to ~3.50 a gallon since american drilling tends to keep prices in that range for the past few years. At that rate, it pays for itself after about 4-5 years. Before the pandemic hit, I know I could pay off the difference in about 2.5 years.

I'll admit, the strict dollar savings are hard to plan now with gas prices fluctuating so much and the acceptance rate of remote work. Regardless, dollar savings aren't the only reason I'm buying this car. There's also the fact that it's fast, greatly reduced CO2 and emissions output (my local power at night is provided by nuclear), and it's likely to have a higher resale value over the hybrid (thus making the realistic price difference between the two even smaller than 3K, I actually haven't even factored this piece in yet to the fuel savings).
 

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I don't see any other major reasons for buying a hybrid either, apart from saving money on fuel and possibly not having to have brake pads replaced as often. Hybrids tend to cost more than equivalent gasoline vehicles, even with a partial cost tax offset. It can take some years and/or miles driven to make up for the increased cost for a hybrid.
 

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Gas prices will continue to rise unless everybody goes electric . However electricity is not cheap everywhere.
Surprisingly California has some of the most expensive electricity in the nation. EV off peak rate in CA is now 17 cents a kw on the EV charging plan which benefits you for your other uses between 12 am and 3 pm. If you have Solar PGE will only reimburse you at the wholesale rage for extra electricity .which is 3 cents a kw, where as they sell it at anywhere from 28 to 32 cents to as much as 50 cents per kw on the time or use schedule.
The math says that extra electcity with a Solar Power is best used for and Electric Car of some type be it PHEV or pure EV.
Lots of things to consider when you go electric they still don't do as well in cold climates as
evidenced on this board.
 

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The Prime won't make sense financially for most people that buy it. You'll be paying above MSRP for the first year. I bought my Hybrid at MSRP knowing full well it wasn't a great deal financially. But some of us prefer the improved performance. I wouldn't have bought a non-Hybrid RAV because it felt slow. The Prime will be fun to drive. If you care about that sort of thing, performance would be a good reason to buy it.
 

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PRIME IS NOT GOING TO SAVE MONEY

Assuming the national average cost of electricity at .12 cents per kWh it will cost $2.17 to fully charge the 18.1 kWh battery to travel 42 miles.

Does anyone see a problem with these numbers?

My current 2019 Rav 4 hybrid can travel 42-44 miles on one gallon of gasoline which cost me just over $2 per gallon 🤔

I understand gas fluctuates more than electricity but even if gasoline goes to $4.17 a gallon it will take 56,000 miles before I would recoup the price difference I paid for my Rav 4 hybrid 2019 XLE ($27,900) and the Prime SE after the tax rebate ($38,100-$7,500=$30,600) assuming you can purchase the Prime for msrp.
"Does anyone see a problem with these numbers?"
Yes.
1- you are using your observed mpg for your car, not the EPA rating. You gave yourself 10% by doing that.
2-You assume that 18.1 kwh has to be put into the Prime battery to go 42 miles. Based on the MPGe, it should take about 15.7. That's another 15%.

The rest is less tangible. I have a prius prime. Given the tax breaks, that car was actually less than a regular prius. However, the car is basically a prius, nothing fancy. At least some of extra cost of the RAV4 is to pay for 308hp. So there is some element of apples and oranges to compare a regular RAV4 to a RAV4 Prime.

Do you actually average 42-44 mpg between fill ups? One benefit of plugin hybrids is a huge reduction in cold starts, with the accompanying pour mileage. So, big benefit for short trips.

The engines in these cars should outlast the cars, given how few miles are on them. One might say that they are more complicated, but they are not more complicated than any other hybrid. They just have a bigger battery. Oh, and a charger.

While it might not work everywhere, I'm sure there are plenty of folks where electricity is cheaper and gas is expensive. And folks with solar.

Even if it take 35,000 miles to break even, it's still cheaper to drive. And it's likely that the extra up front cost will be recouped by market forces when you sell the car.

You never (seldom) have to go to the gas station, and the car is always ready (full tank) for a long trip. (for some people)

So yes, if electricity is .21/kwh, and gas is $2.00/gallon, it won't pay for itself. It will also leave you in the dust at a traffic light.
 

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I'm always impressed to meet someone who is able to speak for "most people".
Same as me me being impressed with someone who thinks that buying HV for fuel savings is not top on the list.
 

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I'm at a loss to understand why people are compelled to assume that "cost savings" is ever a reason to consider a HV purchase. It may or may not be, but its certainly not at the top of the list. Its a false argument in any case, often brought forward by hybrid haters.
It's not necessarily the main reason, but saving on fuel cost can at least partially offset the price premium of an EV or HV, making the effective cost similar or at least less painful.

When doing this math I think it's best to calculate the fuel cost per mile. Before the pandemic, the cost of fuel was about $2.75/gal (US average). $2.75 / 40 = $0.069/mi. At $0.12/kWh and 94 MPGe, the electrical equivalent is 33.7 / 94 * 0.12 = $0.043/mi. Each mile you drive electric vs gas saves $0.026.

That's ... well ... not much. It takes about 40k of driving before you save $1k. Lots of people will trade in their cars before then -- it's only the long-term owners who might see savings eventually (especially if fuel prices increase over time).

Then again, some people can charge for free at work. That might save a few hundred dollars per year as well. And, like you said, gas and electricity prices vary. And there can be other perks like free parking or free tolls. So for some people there can be a clear financial benefit.
 

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Trade-in value is one wild card here in assessing cost savings of EV/HV vs ICE. When shopping for my hybrid I was surprised to learn a hybrid does hold a great resale advantage if any. Maybe that will be better now since Toyota upped the battery warranty on the '20s. I presumed I would get a lot more money back when I went to trade in my Hybrid. Still hoping so.
 
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It may be not about saving money. It may be solving a problem with ICE noise. Personally, I found rav 4 hybrid much noisier than my camry hybrid (mostly ICE sound).
I've done some calculations for plug-in hybrid vs hybrid - difference was minimal in my case - usually I'm driving about 500 km weekly.
 

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Trade-in value is one wild card here in assessing cost savings of EV/HV vs ICE. When shopping for my hybrid I was surprised to learn a hybrid does hold a great resale advantage if any. Maybe that will be better now since Toyota upped the battery warranty on the '20s. I presumed I would get a lot more money back when I went to trade in my Hybrid. Still hoping so.
Yes, we all want a lot for our trade in. I have a 2005 4Runner that I'm certain is worth $10k. :) (hey, it's got the V8)

I did a quick comparison of a 2016 XLE hybrid vs the XLE non-hybrid for trade/sale value. According to Kelley Blue book, the hybrid is worth $1,200 to $1,700 more, for private-sale / trade-in. And that's with gas at a very low price. I'm sure that difference would go up a lot if gas was, say, $4.22/gal.

One other nice thing about cars that get good mileage- Once you actually own the car, all driving is cheaper. I have a Prius Prime, I get 65 mpg on the highway. The car is so cheap to drive that the cost of gas simply does not matter. If I go on a trip, the cost of food/lodging and even the tolls is more than the gas. A lot more. Right now I can drive 650 miles for $20.
 

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65 mpg highway? Wow.
 
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Resale on the Rav4 Prime will also likely be high (purely speculative at this point). Like others have pointed out, hybrid sells at a premium used vs non-hybrid, the same will be true for Prime vs normal hybrid. I'd likely think about getting another car once mine would hit around 150K miles, at that point, only 30-50K miles are likely going to be on the engine. So you can sell a high mileage car that doesn't have a lot of high mileage wear. With the dual drive train on these vehicles, you get so much extra reliability. Combine that with the fact that it'll still be a fast car that can tow a decent amount with very little fuel cost, I think these cars will be a premium in the used markets. This effectively reduces your total cost of ownership and will save you money.
 

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Same as me me being impressed with someone who thinks that buying HV for fuel savings is not top on the list.
I did not buy the Hybrid only for better economy, it's just the icing on the cake. For us, the better performance, quieter and better ride vs the gas version won us over. I'm not so sure we won't get the Hybrid premium back on trade or resale when we're done with it anyway.

Sent from my LM-Q910 using Tapatalk
 

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Discussion Starter #20
"Does anyone see a problem with these numbers?"
Yes.
1- you are using your observed mpg for your car, not the EPA rating. You gave yourself 10% by doing that.
2-You assume that 18.1 kwh has to be put into the Prime battery to go 42 miles. Based on the MPGe, it should take about 15.7. That's another 15%.

The rest is less tangible. I have a prius prime. Given the tax breaks, that car was actually less than a regular prius. However, the car is basically a prius, nothing fancy. At least some of extra cost of the RAV4 is to pay for 308hp. So there is some element of apples and oranges to compare a regular RAV4 to a RAV4 Prime.

Do you actually average 42-44 mpg between fill ups? One benefit of plugin hybrids is a huge reduction in cold starts, with the accompanying pour mileage. So, big benefit for short trips.

The engines in these cars should outlast the cars, given how few miles are on them. One might say that they are more complicated, but they are not more complicated than any other hybrid. They just have a bigger battery. Oh, and a charger.

While it might not work everywhere, I'm sure there are plenty of folks where electricity is cheaper and gas is expensive. And folks with solar.

Even if it take 35,000 miles to break even, it's still cheaper to drive. And it's likely that the extra up front cost will be recouped by market forces when you sell the car.

You never (seldom) have to go to the gas station, and the car is always ready (full tank) for a long trip. (for some people)

So yes, if electricity is .21/kwh, and gas is $2.00/gallon, it won't pay for itself. It will also leave you in the dust at a traffic light.
My wife averages 44 mpg combined driving freeway and around town. I am 42 mpg behind the wheel and I have tracked the fuel the old fashion way and the instrument readout consistently is within 1/2 mpg.

I am not overstating my miles per gallon.

42 mpg combined in weather above 60 degrees is very realistic and I am using 85 octane at 4,400 ft above sea level.

Use a higher grade at a lower elevation I bet our Rav 4 hybrid would push 46-47 combined mpg and I don’t drive like a grandma but I also don’t punch it at the traffic light racing Primes

Winter in Utah we average 38 mpg.

Enjoy your Prime and good luck buying one at msrp.
 
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