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My (completely guessing) interpretation of this is that they had a set number for each country planned for production, and all the Japanese ones are spoken for already. In the US, it's a little weird because the dealers I spoke to said they're basically sent some number of them and they don't get to pick trim level/color/options, so I'm assuming they'll still send over the few thousand that we heard rumors of (only to states with ZEV agreements), but then stop until the battery supply can continue again.

It's not clear from anything I've read how this will play out in Europe, but I suspect there will be some limited allocation of them there, too, in markets where it's been announced. I don't know if it's typical in Europe to order a specific car like in Japan, or if it's more like the US where you usually have to pick from what's made available.

They don't want to allow Japanese customers to start ordering for next year because the tax subsidies for next year haven't been determined yet by the legislature, and a final price can't be determined. I think that's the reason why subsidies are mentioned in this context by Toyota.
 

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There seems to be some speculation that maybe this "delay" might only be for Japan. However, would it really make sense for Toyota to cite battery inventory and significant demand as a reason to not provide the Prime in a country of roughly 127 million people, only to turnaround and offer it to a North American population that is three times larger...let alone the rest of the global market?!

As someone else already inferred, PHEVs is still a niche market. Toyota would be wise to reserve battery inventory for its HV models that are already in high demand and selling well, globally. I suspect this is why they are concentrating on existing business that is clearly profitable, rather than expending any further time, energy and resources on another product that they cannot produce fast enough and has a much, much smaller customer base (for now, at least). Compounding this is the state of EV subsidies in many countries - why manufacture a vehicle that will largely entice potential purchasers because of the rebates, when the financial viability of continuing to offer EV rebates during a period of global uncertainty (see COVID) is very much in question.
 

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There seems to be some speculation that maybe this "delay" might only be for Japan. However, would it really make sense for Toyota to cite battery inventory and significant demand as a reason to not provide the Prime in a country of roughly 127 million people, only to turnaround and offer it to a North American population that is three times larger...let alone the rest of the global market?!
Yes, I think it might. The battery supply is limited, of that there is no doubt. Toyota presumably has market projections that they use to purchase supplies. Clearly they underestimated the demand in Japan. But their comments about not knowing what the subsidy will be, (for Japan), next year, clearly plays into this. Even though the car is 2021 model, perhaps Toyota was just thinking about 2020 sales. They now have so many unexpected Japanese orders that the deliveries are starting to spill over into 2021. Without knowledge of the subsidy, they have no idea of how to price those cars. On top of that, if they pulled batteries from another market, then they would have to make yet another announcement of how they cannot keep up with demand. We already know the American market has a limited supply. One would presume that Toyota can meet their projections, at least for the first round of cars. I think we just have to wait and see what happens for future deliveries.

I think this does prove one thing I've been saying for a while, which is that hybrids and plug-in hybrids (that can acutally be built) can do more for the environment than fully electric cars (that cannot). This is spite of the fact that Toyota does not have enough batteries. If Toyota was going full electric, the number of cars that could be produced would 80% to 90% less.
 

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I think this does prove one thing I've been saying for a while, which is that hybrids and plug-in hybrids (that can acutally be built) can do more for the environment than fully electric cars (that cannot).
I've heard this argument a few hundred times by a few hundred people and it just holds no water. You may need to own and drive an EV to understand why. I won't discuss this further with you until you own an EV. Sorry. The paradigm is too deep.
 

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I've heard this argument a few hundred times by a few hundred people and it just holds no water. You may need to own and drive an EV to understand why. I won't discuss this further with you until you own an EV. Sorry. The paradigm is too deep.
I think there are many people that a full EV works for great. We have a long range EV in our household, but we're aware of its limitations for what we want to do, so a PHEV SUV is exactly what I want to replace our current gas-only one.
 

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I won't discuss this further with you until you own an EV. Sorry. The paradigm is too deep.
OK, well that's a good way to educate folks. I have a prius prime, I've driven 1200 miles since I last got gas. I've use about two gallons in that time. So I'm like 90% electric. I'll grant that a lot of plugins are just cheats, but not all are. Anyone who drives a rav4 now could also drive a rav4 prime. This would save gas and emission. Maybe not as much as full electric, but not all of us can go full electric. I'm not prepared to give up my ability to drive anywhere on a moments notice. And I don't want to own two cars, which is one suggestion people have. That hardly counts as an improvement, unless you already had two cars to begin with.
 

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OK, well that's a good way to educate folks. I have a prius prime, I've driven 1200 miles since I last got gas. I've use about two gallons in that time. So I'm like 90% electric. I'll grant that a lot of plugins are just cheats, but not all are. Anyone who drives a rav4 now could also drive a rav4 prime. This would save gas and emission. Maybe not as much as full electric, but not all of us can go full electric. I'm not prepared to give up my ability to drive anywhere on a moments notice. And I don't want to own two cars, which is one suggestion people have. That hardly counts as an improvement, unless you already had two cars to begin with.
Second that! It's exactly my motivation to go for a PHEV over a (B)EV. Range, loading stress, etc. As soon as ik can pre-order a Prime XSE my dealer will do so.
 

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I'm not sure why everyone is shocked by this...there were bound to limits on the raw materials for manufacturing. Once Ford, GM and the other big boys start going all electric, prices are gonna go up and supply will drop. There are only so many raw materials to go around to make batteries....

I also suspect there isn't a huge profit margin in this vehicle, so they'll just sell more gas versions because that motor and transmission RD costs are shared among other platforms.

Gas is a long way from dying, just because you can't build, maintain and recycle enough battery vehicles for 7 billion people in the world.


Toyota cuts output of RAV4 Prime plug-in hybrid for US to laughable 5,000 units
Bradley Berman
- Jun. 30th 2020 2:24 pm ET

 

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Second that! It's exactly my motivation to go for a PHEV over a (B)EV. Range, loading stress, etc. As soon as ik can pre-order a Prime XSE my dealer will do so.
Right. There seem to be 3 reasons to go with the Prime vs Tesla

(a) lower price (by ~22k. $53k vs $31k)
(b) practical to make long distance trips with a trailer
(c) better reputation overall for Toyota for reliability. (despite all the griping about the fuel tank/dead battery issue, both are relatively minor)

b/c are just money. You could instead pay a freight carrier to move your stuff instead of a trailer, or rent a truck, or own a truck. You could just pay more to repair your Tesla or sell it when it goes out of warranty.

So huge markups on the Prime mean you should go Tesla. Tesla is also an arguably better looking vehicle, inside and out, to most people, including friends and potential mates*. And it's 4.8 0-60 all the time instead of 5.7 when you want to waste gas and 9.2 when you don't. Plus better handling and the throttle control is better as there's only electric drive, no laggy gas engine. All that's not worth paying $22k more, but when the price delta is smaller it's worth considering.

*when factoring in a vehicle's looks it's not your opinion that counts, as you will get used to driving an ugly or beautiful car, but what other people you haven't met yet will think. And this is pretty much on average universally in favor of a Tesla.
 

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Drove a model y long range with fsd and a color. Quote before Ca taxes fee's and delvery is 60,990 that was
before this bump to FSD at the end of June. So to get it out the Door close to 69 k last month and 70k this month.
You can still get about 3800 back from state and local rebates where I live. (State, PGE and monteray clean air )
So about 66 or 67 k. Good things about it acceleration and handling outstanding stereo . Not crazy about the front (subtact out 8k if you don't want FSD)
seat bench length or glass roof. (pretty roof but I think the interior heat is a bigger concern). If I load it up with gear
on the roof rack I am concerned about real world range.
Consumer Reports model y report is spot on.

I estimate a Prime if I could get one at MSRP would be around 40k with all the rebates.
(fully loaded)
Still somethings I like about it . More friendly to gear, I like an instrument panel in front of
me . It has Android auto. I don't think the stereo is anywhere near as good on the Toyota .Toyota will never self drive though. I think the seat's are better on the Toyota front bench on a Tesla is not very long. Interior on Tesla is pretty spartan even compared to a Toyota.
 

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Drove a model y long range with fsd and a color. Quote before Ca taxes fee's and delvery is 60,990 that was
before this bump to FSD at the end of June. So to get it out the Door close to 69 k last month and 70k this month.
You can still get about 3800 back from state and local rebates where I live. (State, PGE and monteray clean air )
So about 66 or 67 k. Good things about it acceleration and handling outstanding stereo . Not crazy about the front (subtact out 8k if you don't want FSD)
seat bench length or glass roof. (pretty roof but I think the interior heat is a bigger concern). If I load it up with gear
on the roof rack I am concerned about real world range.

I estimate a Prime if I could get one at MSRP would be around 40k with all the rebates.
Still somethings I like about it . More friendly to gear, I like an instrument panel in front of
me . It has Android auto. I don't think the stereo is anywhere near as good . If will never
self drive though. I think the seat are better on the Toyota front bench on a Tesla is not very long. Interior on Tesla is pretty spartan even compared to a Toyota.
Please subtract the FSD cost from your comparison. That's a very expensive feature that isn't on a Rav4, and is arguably presently just a preorder. (as the automatic lane changes/navigate/autopark/autosummon are both beta and dangerous and not worth 8k). So 53k before taxes and fees. 49k after the rebates. Versus ~29k if you could get a RAV4 SE at MSRP and then collected the federal + state tax rebates.

As you point out, howevever, the 20k before tax price difference is getting you: better acceleration, a glass roof, much better sound, better handling, a much sexier looking car inside and out.

The RAV4's advantages are just price and if you want to make a long trip, especially if you want to tow or haul a lot of gear, you save hours wasted supercharging. And the instrument cluster is more utility focused, and the reliability is likely significantly better.
 

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If you subtract out FSD you are still at about 61 k OTD - maybe 4k rebates so around 56 or 57 k.
Saw two Y's along the cliffs today. So basing in just on price that is still a 15k to 20k k delta.
I think the Y will be more reliable than the Toyota no Ice Engine less complicated mechanics.
Someone did a comparison of cost between a 3 and a regular hybrid somewhere on the Web the
hybrid came out a little cheaper even with the no maintenance on the Tesla. Still not the only factor.
 

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I think the Y will be more reliable than the Toyota no Ice Engine less complicated mechanics.
I don't think that and you shouldn't either. Yes, the Y has a less complex drivetrain.
However,
1. Complexity isn't the whole story. Component reliability is. The gearbox that Toyota uses - called the "transaxle" - virtually never fails. While Teslas have had severe mortality issues on their drive units. (early models all failed albeit under warranty). Yes, that gearbox should never fail - it's just a slightly more complex differential - but it does if you don't get the design just right.
2. While yes, the engine is quite complex and there's no engine in a Y:
a. That engine is engineered for ~200k+ mile service life, yet at 80% electric power, a Rav4P owner will only have 40k miles on it at 200k.
b. You will never need to change the sparkplugs or coolant. Oil changes are cheap. You'll never have enough miles for carbon buildup on the EGR. You'll never have enough wear to get an oil burning problem with the piston rings, or develop an internal coolant leak, or blow your head gasket, or many other causes of engine failure. Etc, etc.
3. The rest of the vehicle is shared in common with the rest of Toyota's lineup, and is pulled from their part catalog of reliable parts. Those door handles aren't likely to quit, the switches keep working, the head unit won't fail from a non-automotive grade screen or burn up it's emmc, the AC system is simple enough it won't fail too often, the 12v battery is in an accessible location, and so on and so forth. Note that all the things I just mentioned are specific failures Teslas are infamous for.
 

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Although the Toyota Hybrid drivetrain is probably the best out there .
I am not buying that the ICE Engine is going to be more reliable than
and Electric alone. And it will require all the things that ICE engines
need to keep them going. Did you read the service schedule that is freely
available on the Toyota Website. Its pretty much like any other current ICE
schedule. In the Prime how well they did with battery support for a Lithium
Ion is still not well proven . I guess you could use the Prius Prime as an
example but there is not that much data on it that I am aware of.
 

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Although the Toyota Hybrid drivetrain is probably the best out there .
I am not buying that the ICE Engine is going to be more reliable than
and Electric alone. And it will require all the things that ICE engines
need to keep them going. Did you read the service schedule that is freely
available on the Toyota Website. Its pretty much like any other current ICE
schedule.
The schedule was obviously cut and pasted. Don't be absurd. Engine air filter, spark plugs - if there's no airflow through the filter and the plugs aren't making spark for pure EV miles only the ICE miles count. Engine oil is debatable but cheap to swap. The Toyota manual writers have not repealed the laws of physics.

And your "not buying".. don't be irrational. Yes, if Toyota made a pure EV it would be more reliable than a hybrid from Toyota. However, they don't make a pure EV yet, a neophyte automaker that hasn't learned every lesson does. I am saying a Toyota hybrid is more reliable than a pure BEV from Tesla. (This is a Toyota hybrid with the same engine, same transaxle, same inverter. But 500 more pounds of battery added and a bunch of component changes to engineer around this.
 

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The current gen Rav4 is far from reliable. Its had plenty of well documented reliability concerns and Toyota reliability is slipping a lot.

You can get a Tesla Model 3 for what 35k?

I dont understand the Phev vs Bev argument. You can easily clear 300 mile range which is plenty for just about anyone

Anyways all hypothetical since you won't be able to get a Prime.

They simply dont have enough batteries. Only so much raw material.

And of course we know how environmentally friendly it is to strip mine the earth for rare metals used in batteries...hahaha
 
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